Burma, ‘A Volcano That May Easily Erupt Again’

By Peter Dhondt

BRUSSELS, Nov 16 (IPS) – Short-term prospects remain dim for democracy and human rights in Burma, but the hardship that drove monks and protesters into the streets in August and September may worsen the instability there and force neighbouring countries to press for drastic change.

“The demonstrations in Myanmar (Burma) were basically a spontaneous reaction following the price hikes of fuel and the runaway inflation caused by economic mismanagement,” Japanese ambassador Shigeru Tsumori said at an ‘Avian Voices in Europe’ seminar here. The discussion on the future of Burma was organised by the European Policy Centre, with the support of the Japan-based Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

While the army in this military-ruled country put an end to the uprising, led by hundreds of thousands of monks, the “latent dissatisfaction” about the economic situation means that the South-east Asian country is “a volcano that can easily erupt by another miscalculation of the junta”, said Tsumori, a professor at the Department of Social Sciences in Tokyo and Japanese ambassador to Burma between 2000 and 2002.

After weeks of protests, Burma’s military junta ordered a crackdown on the monks that led them in late September. On Friday, the junta admitted that 15 people were killed in the crackdown, or five more than it had earlier acknowledged, according to the U.N. human rights envoy Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, who visited the country this week, met with top officials there, as well as political prisoners.

Tsumori visited Myanmar two weeks ago and left “not even cautiously optimistic”, as he put it. “So far, there is no indication that the junta will take the courageous steps that are needed” – including a genuine dialogue with the opposition and showing democratisation.

Harn Yawnghwe, director of the Burma-Europe office in Brussels that works with the democracy movement in Myanmar and prepares for a democratic transition, agreed that there is not much reason for optimism. “The military does not want to share power.”

But Yawnghwe sees possibilities for “very slow change”.

He explained, “The socio-economic situation is desperate, and that pressure will not go away. People are traditionally providing food to the monks, but now, poor people are turning to the monasteries to be fed.”

“Moreover, the attacks by the security forces on the monks are something people will not forget easily. And then, India and China are beginning to see that the military does not have the situation under control,” he added. “It is in their interest that Burma remains stable and start to develop again.”
Burmese monks
According to Tsumori, the big question now is what will happen with the referendum on the new constitution, the next step what the military government says is in its road plan to reform the country. So far, the opposition in Myanmar did not have any input in the drafting of that text.

“It is possible that the crackdown may go against the efforts of the junta to mobilise supporters of the new constitution. Chances are now real that it will not be voted if the constitution is seen as a mere continuation of the present regime,” he explained. In the event this happens, Burma’s military would not even able to sanitise the appearance of its regime.

How then can Burma be persuaded to reform? “Pressure and good advice are indispensable,” said Tsumori. “Non-intervention clearly does not work. Peer pressure and friendly advice can bring us further.”

According to Tsumori, the amount of pressure that different countries apply can vary, “but we have to cooperate and to coordinate, our objective should be the same.” And last but not least “China and India should be convinced to do their part”.

The two giant neighbours of Burma kept silent about the September repression that earned Myanmar so much criticism elsewhere in Asia and beyond. China, one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, made sure no U.N. sanctions were voted. Both countries have considerable business interests and geopolitical interests at stake.

According to Yawnghwe, all those elements will put more pressure on the junta to start real talks with the opposition.

All eyes are now also on how the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN), the most dominant regional grouping, addresses the issue of Burma when its leaders meet for a summit in Singapore next week. Critics have called for different measures, ranging from a censure of Burma to an expulsion of the country from ASEAN.

On the international scene, Yawnghwe believes in multi-party talks, “led by the UN, with the military involved and all the neighbours, the EU, the United States and Russia locked into it. Dialogue is the only option.” But even such talks still seem a long way to go. (END/IPSAP/PD/JS/07)