Chindia Rising
BRUSSELS, Jan 28 (IPS)- Despite their stark differences on various levels, including in political systems, China and India together are knocking on the doors of the western world -- and it could just be a matter of time before economic world powers let them in.
Speaking at a seminar this week on the 'Asian Voices in Europe Series' here, held in cooperation between the European Policy Centre and Japan's Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Prof Rajendra K Jain said that the economic rise of China and India – often called ‘Chindia’ these days -- is "unparalleled in human history".
"China has witnessed 9.5 percent economic growth per annum for the last 25 years, trebling its share of world GDP, while India's economy has grown at 6 percent a year for two decades, doubling its share of GDP," noted Jain, who is also chair for the Centre for European Studies at the School of International Studies in New Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University.
The two Asian giants, the world’s most populous countries, have been posting record-high economic growth rates. For a while, media reports were talking about which country would outdo the other. China's GDP growth hit 10.7 percent in 2006 - and 11.4 percent in 2007, official figures released early in 2008 showed. India’s GDP posted 9.6 percent growth in 2007.
By 2050, Jain predicted, the re-emergence of these Asian giants, together with Russia and Brazil (known collectively as the BRIC-Brazil-Russia-India-China countries), will profoundly affect the world economy.
In fact, Geneva's Modern Asia Centre research fellow Wei Wei Zhang said that China's GDP had increased tenfold over the past 30 years, "lifting 300 million people out of poverty".
"China is entering its most stable period since 1949," said Wei. "Given the size of both countries' combined trade, it is said that when Chindia sneezes, the rest of the world catches cold. Perhaps this should be changed to 'Chindia can offer medication for the cold'."
This grand vision for Chindia gained momentum after Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to India in November 2006, during which the two countries pledged more joint economic cooperation and moved to set aside various differences in their respective policies.
With Chindia now working to overcome past differences, the European Commission's Geoffrey Barrett said that EU-Asia relations are changing in many areas, including research, trade, security, human security, climate change and energy conservation, and fighting world poverty.
"EU-India relations must be upgraded to reflect the fact that India has been a key player on the world stage since 1994. Meanwhile, the proposed new EU-Chinese Partnership and Cooperation Agreement will reflect changed bilateral relations and will enhance political dialogue," added Barrett, adviser for Asia Directorate of the Commission's Directorate-General for External Relations.
It is not the same though with the United States. According to Jain, the U.S. government is "concerned about China's security challenge, while the EU sees the country as a crucial partner rather than a strategic threat".
Still, some observers agree that China and India's growth continues to be seen as a threat by European countries. Twenty-five percent of Chinese industry is actually foreign-owned, and Chinese industries provide Europe with cheap consumer goods and help to control inflation, Jain added. Although EU-India trade is smaller, Europe still fears India's threat to its service-sector jobs.
According to Wei, in contrast to China's rise, which is export-based, India's growth stems from accessing its potential especially in the field of service industries.
"Given the importance of the Sino-EU strategic partnership, the two powers should treat each other as equals, accepting each other's values," said Wei.
Jain observes that Europe expects the two emerging powers to behave as "responsible stakeholders" in resolving global problems.
Post-modern Europe currently exports European social, economic and ideological behaviour to 'civilise' the rest of the world. It is an attitude, said Jain, that both China and India deeply resent.
Chinese development, explained Jain, is spearheaded by a one-party state and a managed economy, while India is a democracy with a free market economy.
Wei agrees, saying that both China and India's leaders focus on common interests "while accepting that their models of modernisation are very different", something that the West should accept and respect as well.
"But given its own political bias, the West believes that democratic India will overtake China," said Wei.
Still, Barrett sees China as facing economic challenges, "as there are vast swathes of the country which are not developing".
"China is beginning to respond more like an international partner, and the EU would like to see it introduce social and political reform," he added.
Among the more controversial policies that get the goat of some European countries is China's non-interference policy in authoritarian regimes like Myanmar and Zimbabwe which, explained Jain, had the Germans calling it "a breach of international rules and behaviour".
Meanwhile, India's economic success, pointed out Barrett, was linked to its democracy and the rule of law. "It shares the same approach towards global concerns like the fight against terrorism or climate change," he said.
These differences aside, all speakers agreed that much can be done towards a healthy partnership between Chindia and the western world.
"European companies could become more competitive by teaming up with Chinese and Indian companies. At the same time, working with Europe benefits Chindia, as the EU generates 40 percent of global GDP and is a vital source of trade, technology and foreign direct investment," concluded Jain.
Wei sees the fight against global poverty — which affects 50 percent of the world population — succeeding if China and India join forces with Europe. "Europe is Africa's biggest aid contributor, China provides pragmatic assistance and India has the business networks," he pointed out. (END/IPSAP/LLC/JS/020308)
