Prospect of Warmer India-Pakistan Ties Remains Dim
By Peter Dhondt
BRUSSELS, Feb 17 (IPS) – After nearly three months of tension between India and Pakistan over the November attacks in Mumbai, prospects for renewed cooperation between the nuclear-armed neighbours remain dim, two South Asian analysts say.
"Relations between India and Pakistan are at a critical stage," Dipankar Bannerjee, director of the Delhi-based Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies told a discussion here organised by the European Policy Centre and supported by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
"The target of the Mumbai attack was India, but also Pakistan,” Bannerjee, a retired major general in the Indian Army, said, referring to the Nov. 26, 2008 attacks in hotels, railway stations and public places Mumbai that resulted in the deaths of nearly 200 people and injuries to more than 300. "The immediate objective was to set off an Indian-Pakistan war.”
Bannerjee said that while “that purpose has been defeated", India and Pakistan, which have decades of testy ties and wars between them, have a long way to go to rebuild the trust needed for the two arch-enemies to work together.
Last week brought a glimpse of hope. The highest official in Pakistan’s Interior Ministry, Rehman Malik, admitted that the attacks on Mumbai were partly planned in Pakistan. He announced that suspects from the banned militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba have been held and may be prosecuted.
"That is a courageous statement and a reversal from previous denials", Bannerjee commented. "Now, Pakistan will have to complete the investigation, punish all the people that were involved in the attacks and dismantle all terrorist facilities in the country. Pakistan will need the support from India and from the international community for that."
But Rt Lt Gen Talat Masood, an independent military and political analyst in Islamabad, sounded less optimistic in the long term. "The Mumbai attacks illustrated the fragility of India-Pakistan relations. Our optimistic assessment before was wrong."
Masood fears that the rapprochement efforts of the last five years are likely to fall entirely apart if the peace process remains frozen. Even before the attacks on Mumbai, the dialogue between the two countries had deteriorated.
"In Pakistan, the transition from dictatorship to democracy meant a great distraction from the peace process. And India was too much preoccupied with its international agenda. It did not bother much any more about regional problems. That was a great mistake.”
But however difficult normalisation between India and Pakistan may look, the political climate in the subregion is propitious for a new beginning, Bannerjee believes. "Look at the results of the elections in Bangladesh. Now there is a secular party in power, whereas the Islamist parties are reduced to a few seats. Or take the elections in Kashmir: a lot of people went to vote, expressing their desire for change."
According to Bannerjee, India and Pakistan need to continue their eight-track dialogue, improve trade relations and cross-border people movements and strengthen regional cooperation. "We are at a critical stage in economic history, while the war in Afghanistan and in the border regions in Pakistan needs to be overcome as well. We will need and enormous political will for that, and a major international effort is needed, but main job has to be done in India and Pakistan,” he added.
For Masood, the biggest setback in the composite dialogue was the lack of success in the fundamental territorial disputes around Kashmir, Siachen and Sir Creek. "If those problems had been handled, that would have transformed the relation."
Another disillusion for Masood was the abandonment of plans for a gas pipeline from Iran to India through Pakistan, due to pressure from the United States. "Both countries need the energy, and the pipeline would also have increased the mutual dependence between India and Pakistan."
Masood appeared extremely unhappy with Indian accusations that the Pakistan government or government agencies played a role in the attacks on Mumbai, the Indian government’s announcement that all options - including military actions – were open in dealing with, and India’s "attempts to isolate Pakistan”.
"That is poor strategy. Pakistan is facing its greatest challenge with radicalism. The country needs the support of the region and of the international community. If you try to isolate Pakistan, you play into the hands of the militants,” Masood pointed out.
According to Masood, relations between India and Pakistan can only improve in a sustainable way if a solution for the Kashmir problem is found. "It all depends on political will. If you want it, you can it. The process has to be really started, it can lead to a solution. But is the will there? Currently, I cannot see it." (END/IPSAP/PD/JS/09)
