JAPAN: Complacency, Cynicism Ails Regional Power
WASHINGTON, Dec 18 — Japan's slow progress in changing old ways is undercutting its aim to be a global player, hurting a country already weakened by growing cynicism about politics among its own people.
This was the theme of a discussion here about socio-political changes in Japan over the last decade — which some in fact call the "lost decade" of a country often seen as an economic power but has much less clout in international foreign policy or global affairs.
"Japan enters into the 21st century still languishing from this legacy," said Yoichi Funabashi, author on foreign policy and chief diplomatic correspondent of the Japanese daily 'Asahi Shimbun'.
"The complacency factor is the most serious problem Japan confronts now," he told a seminar here on Japan in the past decade, organised by the Tokyo-based Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
In the past decade, Japan has indeed flexed its political muscle much more. Among others it has been a key player in negotiations for peace in Cambodia, in forums like the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and more recently, discussions about the Korean peninsula.
But Tokyo is still associated with "chequebook diplomacy", not least because it is the biggest donor of development assistance.
On the foreign policy front, Tokyo has also had setbacks. Japan's faith in a non-nuclear pacifist outlook was also shaken by the nuclear tests by India and Pakistan in May 1998, Funabashi said.
The earlier Gulf crisis and the war that followed was a rude awakening to Japan and its people, when they discovered that their economy's wealth did not translate into geopolitical power and influence. On another front, Japan's bid for a permanent membership on the U.N. Security Council lost momentum, has stalled.
What Alan Romberg of the Henry Stimson Centre called Japan's "stagnation" is also seen in perceptions that it has not changed enough to keep up with the times even as rival China rises.
Japan's ties with its neighbours also remain touchy over its wartime atrocities of more than 50 years ago.
For many Japanese, it has likewise been eye-opening to see India, South Korea and others take a lead in Internet technology at a much more rapid pace than their country.
From within, Japan is fraught with economic woes as well. Its average economic growth rate from 1992 to 1999 was 1 percent, which was "really pathetic," Funabashi remarked.
Today, Japan's economy continues to be in the doldrums and efforts continue to perk it up, with unemployment reaching a record 4.7 percent in September.
Overall, Funabashi said Japan still shows a lack of political dynamics and has "inadequate communication skills and infrastructure in this globalisation." He added: "Japan's one-dimensional power projected through economic diplomacy and managerial verve is long over, but Japan has yet to find a new dynamic for foreign policy."
But Michael Mochizuki, holder of the Japan-U.S. relations chair at the Elliott School of International Affairs of George Washington University here, says the 1990s were productive years for the Japanese.
In foreign affairs, Japan took "breathtaking initiatives in trying to achieve (its) ultimate aim: a congenial environment for (its) security interests". In economics, Japan played a key role in the establishment of APEC, he added.
"Without jeopardising its relationship with the US, the Japanese moved forward to create a regional architecture to mitigate further instability in the Asian economic situation," he said.
On the security front, Japan worked to "reinvigorate" its alliance with the United States after the Cold War.
Still, Mochizuki agrees that the changing international order has put tremendous constraints on Tokyo's diplomatic style and eroded Japan's confidence in its traditional foreign policy habits.
Since the mid-1990s, Tokyo has watched uncomfortably as Washington forged a strategic partnership with Beijing, leading Japan to question its own once indubitable position as America's most prominent partner in the region.
"All over the world, strategists are downgrading Japan and upgrading China," observed Funabashi. "They do not worry much about Japan's pride at this point. They are more worried about the future — trends — and expectations are changing."
Within Japan however, Mochizuki sees encouraging signs. For instance, he sees as a major transformation of Japan's public character apologies about its wartime behaviour, and analysis of Japanese behaviour in school textbooks and public documents acknowledging that Japan waged a war of aggression.
But although Japan's economic concerns and social and political weaknesses are key problems, "Japanese politics are at the core," said Funabashi. While much of the region and the world are changing, the 'iron triangle' of businessmen, politicians, and government officials have persisted in their traditional modis operandi.
"People seem to be inflicted with more cynicism as their expectations and aspirations have been thwarted one after another," observed Funabashi.
Public disenchantment can be seen in low ratings for the current government of Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, who recently survived an attempt by political allies to oust him as premier. Japan has had nine prime ministers in the past 10 years, and Funabashi speculated only somewhat tongue-in-cheek that the country may have "10 or 11 by the end of the coming year."
"Japanese people have ultimately regarded politics as irrelevant. They are just as happy not to be interrupted by politics," added Funabashi. Then again, he commented, "No political party (in Japan) offers the solution."
While a younger generation that is pro-active, cosmopolitan and more aware of international affairs is emerging, "there is a serious lack of critical leadership in their ranks. Over the next 5-7 years, we may not see dynamic political leadership," he said.
One prime minister ago, Funabashi was part of Japan's Commission of Japan's Goals in the 21st Century Report, which identified several major challenges to Japan and its future.
Among others, they were globalisation, lack of global proficiency, a rapidly ageing society, and the rise in China's prominence. The report also recommended a more open policy of immigration and suggested that English might be made the official second language of Japan — quite controversial proposals for the country.
According to Funabashi, Prime Minister Mori has not yet read the report. (IPS/2000)
