U.S.-Asia: Diplomacy, Not Unilateralism, is the Way to Go

   by Tim Shorrock

WASHINGTON, Nov 21— As the United States prepares for war in Iraq and expands its military role in Afghanistan, it faces serious challenges in Asia that require adroit diplomacy, including North Korea's apparent violation of its 1994 agreement not to develop nuclear weapons and Japan's economic slowdown.In confronting these issues, analysts say, the Bush administration would be wise to abandon its unilateral approach to global tensions — as it did recently when it sought U.N. approval for weapons inspections in Iraq — and rely more on its allies and friends in the Asian region.

Without such an approach, the advances made in U.S.-Asian relations in recent years could be eroded, warned T J Pempel, director of the Institute of East Asian Studies and a professor of political science at the University of California-Berkeley.

"Asians are more in charge of their collective agenda," he said in a recent speech at a Washington forum on Asia sponsored by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. "Its incumbent for President Bush to take Asia more seriously."

Pempel, the author of several books on Japanese politics, criticised the Bush administration for its tendency to take a unilateral approach to some issues — the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, for instance — while seeking multilateral solutions to others.

"At times, everything looks like a solution to be handled militarily," he said. "Flipping on unilateralism and multilateralism is hard for countries in Asia to accept."

That kind of policy flip has been most visible in regards to Korea. When word first leaked in October that North Korean officials told U.S. negotiators that it was building a uranium processing facility, high-ranking administration officials let it be known that the 1994 Agreed Framework was dead.

But South Korea and Japan publicly objected to that characterisation and said they wanted to continue supplying fuel oil to North Korea under the framework.

With the three countries publicly at odds, President Bush told his advisers that the framework should remain in place until the governments that fund the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organisation — which is building two light water reactors in the North — decide what to do.

In mid-November, KEDO's members agreed to suspend its shipments of fuel oil to North Korea, and the United States and its allies in Asia and Europe appeared to be on the same page.

A few days later, Bush, while proclaiming his "loathing" of North Korean President Kim Jong Il, publicly stated in an interview that the United States had no intention of invading the North.

KEDO's joint decision and Bush's comments gave South Korean President Kim Dae Jung, whose "sunshine policy" towards the North has been unpopular in Washington, some diplomatic wiggle room.

It is equally important to engage China in discussions on Korea and other U.S. concerns, said Jia Qingguo, a professor at the school of international studies at Beijing University.

Jia noted that China chaired the U.N. Security Council meeting that approved the latest weapons inspections in Iraq. "China helped the United States gain consensus," he said. "The two countries have never held so much in common in the history of their relationship."

Unfortunately, that alignment is not shared at the street level, Jia added. "Popular attitudes are moving in the wrong direction," he said. "Many Americans view China as a potential threat, while the Chinese see the United States as an international bully." Still, the two countries "are more likely to be partners than strategic competitors," he said.

As if to underscore Beijing's willingness to work with Washington, the Chinese government issued a careful statement on Korea calling for dialogue but also noting China's interest in eliminating the threat of nuclear weapons.

"We advocate a nuclear-free peninsula and we are against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Kong Quan said. "We call on the sides for dialogue on the problem."

China's role in the Asia region could be enhanced as its economy grows and it buys more of the region's exports, suggested Richard Koo, the chief economist for Japan's Nomura Research Institute.

"No country in Asia succeeded without tapping American consumers," he said. "The hub-and-spoke relationship (established by the United States) was not just military but very much economic."

The "only challenge" ahead to the heavy U.S. influence in Asia could come when the China market is "just as large" as the American market.

"That won't happen for five or ten years, but it's where U.S. influence in Asia could be eroded," said Koo. Japan had a chance to become the dominant market "but missed its chance during the bubble days (in the eighties)," he added. (IPS/2002)