Japan on Path to Unprecedented Reform — Experts
By Tim Shorrock
WASHINGTON — The Cabinet shuffle in Japan late September is a strong indication that the country under the leadership of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has embarked on an unprecedented period of rapid economic and political change since the end of World War II, say experts.
On Monday, Koizumi reshuffled his Cabinet to prepare for critical battles in the Diet over his economic policies and the revision of Japan's peace constitution.
Specifically, Koizumi wants to privatise Japan's trillion-dollar postal saving system and lift constitutional restrictions that have prevented Japan's armed forces from operating more freely abroad.
Both issues are extremely controversial and expected to spark widespread domestic opposition, even within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
To solidify his position, Koizumi appointed Heizo Takenaka, the architect of Japan's recent banking reforms, to a new position as minister in charge of privatisation.
Koizumi also appointed a new foreign minister, former diplomat Nobutaka Machimura, and named Tsutomu Takebe, a controversial former agricultural minister, to be secretary-general of the LDP.
Kaoru Yosano, who previously served in past cabinets as trade and education minister, will assist Takebe in overseeing government finances and the LDP's political strategy in the Diet.
The Takabe and Yosana appointments were made over the objections of party elders, such as former prime minister Yoshiro Mori, who wanted their positions filled by LDP veterans with a stronger political base. But Koizumi selected two men who fervently support his economic agenda.
"By placing reformers in the executive positions, Koizumi showed he was making every effort to push through legislation to privatise the national postal system," the 'Asahi Shimbun' daily commented Monday.
According to Nathaniel Thayer, a former U.S. intelligence officer in Japan who is now a professor of Japanese studies at the John Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies in Washington D.C, Koizumi will be in a good position to push his programs through the Diet.
"This is because he has made changes to the cabinet system that greatly strengthen the power of the prime minister in Japanese domestic politics," said Thayer, who maintains close ties with the LDP from his days as a foreign service and intelligence officer.
In recent years, party reformers moved the policy making apparatus to the cabinet and the prime minister's office, greatly weakening the power of party factions to implement policy.
The cabinet now has a large staff headed by an assistant minister, who can "force the bureaucracy to respond to its wishes," said Thayer.
"That's much like the United States, where the White House is the pinnacle of power for the U.S. government," he said.
While the 1990s were widely dismissed as a "lost decade" for Japan, the next 10 years will be marked by a "third great transformation" following the Meiji Restoration of the late 19th century and the U.S. occupation (after World War II), said Gerald Curtis, a professor of Japanese Studies at Columbia University in New York and a long-time Japan observer.
"This will be a watershed decade in Japan's history," he said.
Curtis' views were echoed by Thayer, who said: "There is a change coming, and coming quickly."
Both spoke at a Washington seminar on Japan last week sponsored by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA. Curtis is a member of the board of directors of the United States-Japan Foundation, which was founded by Sasakawa's business interests.
One of the biggest changes in Japan revolves around Koizumi himself.
By acting decisively and taking risks, such as his recent attempts to normalise relations with North Korea, Koizumi has forged a distinct style of leadership that sets him apart from previous Japanese leaders known for their blandness and allegiance to party discipline. "He has an instinctive grasp of what has to change," said Curtis.
Nishimura Yoichi, the Washington bureau chief for the 'Asahi Shimbun', said that Koizumi's "quick and unexpected actions" as prime minister have changed the Japanese consciousness of what leadership means. "For President Clinton, it was 'the economy, stupid'," said Nishimura. "Now in Japan, it's the prime minister, stupid."
Meanwhile, the political foundations of the LDP, which once resided in crony relationships between party bosses, bureaucrats and powerful industries like construction, have been greatly weakened by corruption and the public's revulsion to scandal.
That problem was underscored Monday when Kanezo Muraoka, a former chief cabinet secretary, was indicted for his alleged role in accepting an unreported 100 million yen (900,222 U.S. dollars) donation from a medical group to the LDP's largest faction.
That faction, which is led by former prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, has now been severely damaged by scandal, and is no longer in a position to pick future party leaders.
"The LDP political machine is crumbling," said Curtis.
Its weakness has made the party, which has virtually ruled Japan since 1955, increasingly dependent on the Komeito, the political party controlled by the Soka Gakkai, Japan's largest Buddhist sect. Future LDP prime ministers "can't get elected without votes delivered by Komeito," Curtis pointed out.
'Ashai's' Yoichi cited recent exit polls showing that 80 percent of Komeito members also cast ballots for LDP candidates.
"This shows the heavy dependence on Komeito by the LDP," he said.
That support could be problematic, however, because the Komeito and the LDP don't see eye to eye on constitutional change.
The change is also apparent in the economic sphere, as the business sector bounces back from an era of slow growth caused by the near-collapse of the country's banking system.
As the economy recovers, said Curtis, traditions that were once a mainstay of the economy, such as the rigid seniority system in government bureaucracies and big Japanese corporations are now rejected as unfair and unacceptable.
That is giving young people a chance for advancement for the first time, but also leading many Japanese, including large numbers of women, to leave the country for better opportunities abroad.
"As a result, Japan is experiencing a true brain drain for the first time, added Curtis. (Inter Press Service)
