POLITICS: Is North Korea Still a Ticking Time Bomb?
Analysis by Wendy Wilson
WASHINGTON, Sep 27 — There's one aspect of North Korea that virtually everyone in the world agrees on: it is a good manipulator. And its intentions are anyone's guess.
Even after the signing of the June 15 Declaration during the historic inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang, nearly everyone is still guessing.
Governments and private citizens alike are trying to ascertain whether North Korea's peace overtures are credible, and more to the point, if the so-called 'Hermit Kingdom' still poses a threat to South Korea, Japan and the greater Asian region, and indeed, to the world.
Seoul and Pyongyang have remained technically at war since the end of the Korean war in 1953. Since then, tension on the peninsula has been a security flashpoint for North-east Asia and the larger Asia- Pacific region.
Chung-in Moon, an advisor to South Korea's National Security Council, who was with President Kim Dae Jung during his meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il last June, said Pyongyang was showing signs of reform, and with good reason.
"They're desperate," he said of the North Koreans. "They're hungry. Their participation is motivated by practical economic reasons," he said at a forum here sponsored by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.
These reasons, Moon added, prompted North Korea to concede its former consistent demand for the total withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Korean peninsula.
Observers also point to the meeting of the two countries' defense chiefs this week in a seaside resort in South Korea's southernmost island. "Two sides share the view that it is important for both sides to ease military tension, remove the danger of war and help a permanent peace take root," said a statement issued after their meeting, the first since the 1950-53 Korean War.
It has been agreed that a joint military committee will handle a project to allow people and equipment to cross the heavily-fortified Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) dividing the Korean peninsula. By September 2001, it is envisaged that a road and railway link will be built to link the countries, with up to 100,000 mines removed from the rail corridor.
The lightning speed of the changes initiated between the two Koreas may be as much cause for concern as for celebration. Dr. Robert Hathaway, a historian and Director of the Asia Program at The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars is guardedly optimistic. "This growing engagement could be viewed as a challenge or an opportunity," he muses.
"Is this detente akin to the toppling of the Berlin Wall? Or is it a prelude to a scenario much like the one that occurred in Yemen?" (During the process of military integration, a conflict arose resulting in the takeover of South Yemen by North Yemen).
A Pentagon Report to Congress issued on September 12 offers some answers. It states that "North Korea remains the major threat to stability in Northeast Asia and is the country most likely to involve the United States in a large-scale war".
"There is little or no evidence of economic reform or reform-minded leaders; reduction in military forces; or a lessening of anti-US rhetoric. A decade of steep economic decline has not deterred the North's leaders from allocating precious resources to improving their military forces."
Kim-Jong Il is a staunch supporter of the "military first" policy. As Professor Moon stated, the North Korean leader has stated repeatedly that "unless you have military power, you cannot encourage an effective negotiation".
If the Pentagon report's findings are correct, and there's little reason to doubt its numbers, the North Koreans must really be in the mood to negotiate.
The North Korean military is continuing to grow in both conventional and asymmetrical forces, e.g. missiles, special forces, weapons of mass destruction, with increasing emphasis on the latter.
Pyongyang maintains the fifth largest armed forces in the world. North Korea fields an artillery force of 12,00 tubes which could rain 500,000 rounds an hour on opposing forces during a conflict.
In the past 12 months, North Korean is said to have engaged in an ambitious program to improve its ground force capability. A key component is the deployment of 240mm multiple rocket launcher systems and 170mm self-propelled guns to hardened sites along the DMZ.
Other force improvements in the last 12 months include the deployment of anti-tank barriers in the forward area, construction of missile support areas, establishment of combat positions along major routes from the North Korean capital to the DMZ, the repositioning of key units toward the DMZ, beefing up coastal defenses in the forward area, preparations for extended range missile testing, and the procurement of fighter aircraft.
In addition, the military has modified key facility defenses, dispersed forces and improved an already impressive camouflage, concealment and deception effort, certainly in keeping with North Korea's international reputation.
Activity during the summer and fall of 1999, training cycles of North Korea's armed forces were extremely high. Key activities during the 1999-2000 winter training cycle were at record levels, a demonstrated effort to improve readiness. Production of military equipment, including missiles, aircraft, submarines, and artillery systems also continues, say analysts.
"One might question this allocation of resources and money from a country whose people are literally starving to death," observed Peter T.R. Brookes, Principal Advisor for East Asian Affairs for the US House of Representatives' Committee on International Relations.
"I would suggest that the intent of North Korea's flurry of diplomatic activity is open to significant question: is it a real opening or is it a crusade to garner as much aid as possible in order to reconstitute its strength?" he said at the Sasakawa-sponsored forum.
Brookes voices a common concern that "all (the world's) largess will result in a 'fit, suntanned and rested' North Korean regime revitalized by foreign aid and once again ready to do battle with Seoul, Washington and Tokyo".
There is no denying that the level of interaction, of direct dialogue without the intervention of third parties, is an indicator of change — however undefined — in the dynamics of the two Koreas.
That change, in turn, may trigger some sensitive alterations in the relationship between Seoul and Washington, if the threat of North Korean aggression is perceived as diminishing.
According to Dr. Moon, Kim Jong-Il has reasoned that American forces can play a role in the stabilization of the region, even after unification. Without their presence, Moon claimed, there could be a power vacuum, leading to regional imbalance, and perhaps even an unhealthy growth in Japanese hegemony.
Ironically, some South Koreans already feel there is no longer a need for an American military presence on the peninsula, says Moon. Others still hold to the idea that there would be a polarization of the political structure in the South if the Americans leave.
"If the South is divided among itself," said Moon, "it cannot negotiate successfully with the North." History is replete with examples of the strategic success of "divide and conquer".
This potential political gridlock could halt the progress of the Korean confederation. Robert Hathaway, the historian, opined: "President Kim (Dae Jung) must reach out to adversaries both in the North and within his own country — both longtime and recent — extending his 'sunshine policy' to both."
Perhaps there is one other opinion regarding Pyongyang's intentions that is shared globally: the hope that this time North Korea means what it says. (IPS/2000)
